MDS6212 Fintech Theory and Practice: Week 5 Assignment


220041006 Yihang Li

Table of Contents

Reference

Questions 1:

using Google Trends, construct a weekly index to capture political relations between U.S. and China from the US perspective, draw the variable in a graph, and discuss its time-series variation

Timeline-U.S. Relations With China

Note: the index in google trends is already weekly

use pytrends for automating downloading of reports from Google Trends.

Interest over Time¶

Questions 2:

using Google Trends, construct a weekly index to predict the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, draw the variable in a graph, and tell us who are more likely to win the final election.

Reference:

US Elections in Search 2020

2020 Presidential & VP Debates

Pytrend Guidlines

Conclusion

Joe Biden is more likely to win the final election.

Question 3:

using Baidu Index, construct an index to capture investor sentiment in the Chinese market, draw the variable in a graph, and discuss its time-series variation.

Reference:

[1] 如何利用百度指数进行数据分析?

[2] 度小满联合百度指数发布2020年一季度国民投资理财情绪指数

Here we choose the keyword '黄金', which in English means Gold, as our index to capture investor sentiment in the Chinese market

According to Baidu Search Index, the graph below is its search trend of Baidu user in China

baidu2_1603967583897.png

Note:

1. Clearly, the time series variation of '黄金''s search trend is in certain period.

2. Besides, at the point of 2020-08-12, there is a peek search value that is much higher than any other points. By looking for the why this peek appeared, we got to know the reason is that the price of the Gold dropped sharply at that time.

3. Moreover, by comparing with keywords '美股' and 'a股' as follows, we can see the period is very similar. And we guess that it is due to the trade time related reason.

baidu2_1603967309278.png